Ann Arbor Undressed : University of Michigan RSQE Predicts No Recession in U.S.

Ann Arbor ="25 miles surrounded by reality".....and a blog about it. ActiveRain.com

University of Michigan RSQE Predicts No Recession in U.S.

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

Big word, any clue what it means?

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics RSQE, is part of the University of Michigan and has been predicting economic forecasts since 1952. They provide economic forecasts in the United States, 7 times a year.

They currently finished their annual conference in Ann Arbor, being held at the Rackham Amphitheater. Saul Hymans is the Director of RSQE and is a widely known economist and emeritus Professor at U.M. in economics and statistics.

Despite a slumping housing market, rising oil prices, flat auto sales, and a week dollar, lack of consumer confidence, the United States will not slip into a recession, according to the new forecast from the University of Michigan economists.

If you would like to read more details click here.

The chart below shows the accuracy of the Michigan Forecasters from 1972 through 2006. Pretty impressive.

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics Chart

 

32 comments • Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate • November 18 2007 07:44PM

Comments

This is welcom news...I sure hope they are right!
Posted by Kelly Sibilsky (Licensed Through Referral Connection, LTD.) over 2 years ago
Missy, these guys have a pretty impressive track record!  I'll bet they're right this time, too!
Posted by Patricia Kennedy (Evers & Company Realtors) over 2 years ago
Missy - I think 2008 is going to be an awesome year for REALTORS and the mortgage industry. People just need to stop listening to all the nay-sayers. This is an awesome graph!
Posted by Linda Scanlan (A Fan of AR) over 2 years ago

Missy, That is the kind of news we like to hear! Their past performance is impressive. So let's hope thaey repeat this time!

Ginger

Posted by Wilmington NC Real Estate & Relocation~ Ginger & Roger Sala (Wilkinson & Associates, Wilmington NC) over 2 years ago

UM forecast says economy poised to heat up  Thanks for the info...

Posted by Jan Wood (None) over 2 years ago
Missy, now if the major media would make that a big story it would be GREAT.  Problem won't happen though; I don't think they like reporting good news.
Posted by Marchel Peterson Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro ABR (Results Realty) over 2 years ago

Missy,

I'm not an economist, but I think this is good news...let's keep our fingers crossed!!! 

Thanks,   Fran

Posted by Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) over 2 years ago
Optimism....that's where it's at! The chart is great and by the looks of all the data and info...well, I really hope this means that it'll turn around soon.
Posted by Celeste "SALLY" Cheeseman HAWAII Relocations & Real Estate (Century 21 Liberty Homes) over 2 years ago
This is news I like to hear. I have heard rumblings otherwise so I am hoping they are correct.
Posted by Jay McGillicuddy~Real Estate Broker (Prudential Verani Realty) over 2 years ago
Missy - Their track record looks good and I do love positive news however based on certain indicators I am not so sure they are going to be right this time, but I would love to be proven wrong.
Posted by Jennifer Fivelsdal, Mid Hudson Valley (JFIVE HOMES REALTY LLC) over 2 years ago

Missy,

great information and nice to come to your blogs, keep them good, hope to read them often.

Ray Saenz

 

Posted by Aurora Colorado Real Estate Ray Saenz, Colorado Realtor (United Property Brokers, Inc) over 2 years ago
Missy- This is great news. Now, what media has picked this up to run with it? None you say? Well, gee I wonder why! Well, not down here anyway, they just like the bad stuff. Katerina
Posted by Nestor & Katerina Gasset Realtors® Wellington Florida Luxury Homes (International Properties and Investments, Inc.) over 2 years ago
The brain trust at U of M has normally been right on the mark.  The graph you showed reinforces that.  This is certainly good news!
Posted by Kris Wales - Macomb County MI real estate blog & homes for sale search site (Keller Williams Realty - Lakeside Market Center) over 2 years ago

Hate to be the contrarian.  But, if they are 2.5% off as in 1997-2001, we could be in a lot of trouble. 

Of course, they could always do what the government does, adjust.

 

Posted by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate over 2 years ago
Missy, I was never a fan of Michigan but now I think I might change my views..:-)
Posted by My Favorite Mortgage.net - Matthew J Blum over 2 years ago
Missy--I bet this report (which leaves out gloom and doom) is not going to be a headline on the evening news. Thanks for sharing the info!
Posted by Teri Eckholm, REALTOR® Anoka County Acreage & Lakeshore Homes (REMAX Specialists) over 2 years ago
Hi Missy,
I choose to believe these experts.  I agree with many comments here that what we need is the media to report these opinions instead of the "doom and gloom".  Thanks.
Posted by Cynthia Tilghman, Realtor® Onslow County NC Home Specialist (Kingsbridge Realty, Inc) over 2 years ago
Missy, I am curious myself to see how the shopping goes this time of year as that has an impact. If they have a good track record then I, too, am hoping they are right. I hear all the analyzing on the news and they are making such dire predictions---now I turn it off!
Posted by Carole Provenzale Owner, Feng Shui Long Island & New York (Feng Shui Long Island & New York City) over 2 years ago
Missy - How refreshing to hear some positive financial news for a change. Thanks for spreading the word.
Posted by Tom Plant (WINEormous.com) over 2 years ago

Missy,

I like Optimism! I need some more right now :0)

Tom Weiss

Posted by Thomas Weiss (Thomas R. Weiss) over 2 years ago
Missy... you and this entry are on my RT Blog today.  I was in MI this weekend.  Talking to a Ford employee whose plant is being shut down this week.... I said we are going into a recesssion...  Good thing I don't have a clue what I AM talking about.  Thanks for the good news. 
Posted by Maureen McCabe Central OH Homes (Real Living HER Worthington MaureenMcCabe.com ) over 2 years ago
I always say that U of M is the bomb!!!  I sure hope and pray that they are right.
Posted by Chris Tesch College Station, Texas Real Estate (RE/MAX Bryan College Station) over 2 years ago
We need more positive news like this - I never knew another U of M could give my UM a run for its money (University of Miami).
Posted by Rick & Ines - Miami Beach Real Estate (Majestic Properties) over 2 years ago

Postive Post Missy -great news for a change! By the way how did you get those snap shot things to come up when the cursor scrolls over the links:)

Sincerely,

Grace Safrin

Posted by Jeff & Grace Safrin, Broker / Owners, Northwest Indiana (F.C.Tucker 1st Team Real Estate) over 2 years ago

Maureen, that is cool.

Rick and Ines, LOL

Grace, go to snap.com and follow the instructions.

Posted by Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor) over 2 years ago
Missy - this is great news for us all! Thanks for sharing, I love your Blog!!  Sorry I haven't been by as much lately, I'm trying to get out more! LOL!  Happy Holidays to you and your family, have a Blessed and Safe Thanksgiving!
Posted by Brad Andersohn ~ Community Manager (ActiveRain) over 2 years ago
Missy - let's hope this is so - we could use some good news - we can always count on you for a lift! Happy Thanksgiving! 
Posted by Clearwater Real Estate Pinellas Florida Condos & Homes for Sale- Cyndee Haydon (Charles Rutenberg Realty) over 2 years ago
Missy, in Inman News yesterday they had an expert say there was a 45% chance of a recession.  It's so hard to know who to believe...there are so many experts as in any profession!
Posted by Lake Norman Real Estate ~ Diane Aurit (LKN Realty, LLC) over 2 years ago
Diane, I saw that, that is one reason I put their historical data in so I'm believing them.
Posted by Missy Caulk-Ann Arbor- Realtor(R)- Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams-Ann Arbor) over 2 years ago
Missy, This is great news. I have seen signs of a good spring market in my area. I will share your
Posted by GITA BANTWAL, REALTOR BUCKS COUNTY, PA HOMES (ReMax Centre Realtors) over 2 years ago
Missy, from the looks of the chart, this is good news. I really believe that the negativity spewed by the media fuels more negativity. Why haven't I heard about this on the "news"?
Posted by Lee Morof, Associate Broker/Attorney (RE/MAX Showcase Homes) over 2 years ago

Missy, this is Great News! Their track record looks impressive too. I hope their accuracy continues as in the past. Thanks for sharing!

I have to agree with the others, when is the media going to pick up on stuff like this?

Posted by Mike Mitchell - REALTOR® - St. Clair Shores, MI (GMAC Real Estate The Kee Group) over 2 years ago

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